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Last week Ocean Tomo sold their patent auction part to ICAP. This created some stir in the news and blogosphere, examples and very few (bloggers) actually seemed surprised. IP Law&Business , and Managing IP among others, have good pieces on the deal. That articles also feature commentary, also found elsewhere, by Ron Laurie from Inflexion Point who says that the major reasons were:
* The Ocean Tomo business model of targeting the low end of asset quality
* The difficulty to conduct diligence.
He also mentioned Intellectual Ventures' likely withdrawal from bidding at Oceant Tomo auctions as. That rumor, which fueled the debate of IV "puppetmastering" the auctions, led to another good IP Law&Business piece (pdf), an interview with IV chief of acquisitions Kevin Barhydt.
The 5$ million in cash and possible 5$ million in stock is a fire-sale price for OT, which for long time where hyped as the saviours of IP liquidity (also by myself, as found in previous posts here and here). Personally I must admit that I believed in the OT model for a while, but in hinsight it was more likely due to lack of experience. Regardless if it was IV in disguise who bought the OT patents or not, it seems as if buying patents "blindly" is not something people are less interested in doing - also likely related to the recent drop in financial strength of many firms. Regardless of that, I still would like to cast some light, in form of Ocean Tomo statistcs, on what I believe to be the death of the public IP marketplace.
Please find a Intangitopia Special Report - where 8 full Ocean Tomo auctions are analyzed inside and out in order to provide you with a better and objective view on what once was the great Ocean Tomo.
// Marcus Malek
(Follow me on twitter)
IP as a financial asset will be discussed further by prominent IP thought-leaders during CIP FORUM 2009, 6-9 Sep, Gothenburg, Sweden
I recently answered a question at LinkedIn with the same question as the title above. I found it very close at heart and thought I'd incorporate it here for further thoughts and some more elaboration
When I think of the IP marketplace I envision sales and acquisitions of IP and not the roll of IP within the marketplace (i.e. technology). The closest embodyment so far would be Ocean Tomo, which seem to have hit a slump with its last auction being seen as a failure (see here and here). In recent years we have seen a surge of different players entering the market (Ocean Tomo being one) and I am a firm believer that this is a field in its infancy, which I have written about here and here.
Before elaborating more on how I see the IP marketplace in five years, I'll take you throug my reasoning. I have chosen only to look at patents as they are by far the most liquid asset.
The IP Marketplace today
First 4 observations I hope we can all agree on:
*Corporations continue to file enormous sums of patents each year, thus "non-core" patents will likely only increase and so will supply for a market.
*Not least in this recession, bigCo,smallCo and inventors are having an easier time to motivate divestiture of patents and are also in greater need of liquidity.
*Non-us legislations are slowly catching on the US model of heavy patent litigation (examples are EU harmonization attempts).
*Increase in large scale patent acquisitions by e.g. trolls, RPX, IV etc.
Looking at above factors; increase in supply and demand combined with legislative action - the obvious answer would be that the IP marketplace would be booming. However this is not that straightforward.
The main reasons for that being:
* Selling (or out-licensing) naked patents is very hard and time consuming and is very much a tacit skill compared to selling many other asset classes which have no element of negotiation as well as much historical data.
* IP landscapes are often cluttered due to wide X-licenses, encumbrances / deal clauses, standards and what's commonly seen as the "troll threat".
* The marginal value for naked patent acquisitions / in-licensing is situation based and that value is often logarithmic from buyer point of view.
I think that in 5 years the IP marketplace will continue to be built up by three sub-markets:
* BigCo broad licensing - continuing with wide X-licenses to increase FTO.
* Liquidity Divestitures - from BigCo to inventors, patents for sale will go up.
* Patent aggregators - nothing indicates any slowdown of RPX, IV trolls.
The IP market moving forward - more behavior than a unified exchange
However I believe there will be great changes, but within quality and behavior as companies recognize strategic value of patents and also the importance of dealing with acquisition or divestiture properly. E.g.:
* Companies will actively start looking for certain technologies when planning a new venture / spin out / line-extension slightly outside of core.
* Patent sales will require more and dedicated work by the seller if looking for short term ROI. The model with an unspecified Cease & Dsesist, countered by a declaratory judgement and then a long wait in Texas, Cali or Delaware is not scaleable and slow - not to mention unpopular.
* With laws passed that could open up for lawsuits also outside of the US, savvy companies will start to be proactive when considering defensive or offensive IP acquisitions to strenghten portfolio.
One could draw the easy parallel of IP and general business where certain amounts of analysis, preparatory work, appealing sales material etc. are given and anyone not complying with the norm has no chance (e.g. not having a thorough business plan, strong PPT and proof of concept if driving down Sand Hill Road). My meaning being that such a norm has not been set in the IP sphere yet.
The emerging new actor
In light of an increase in "homework" (i.e. analysis) needed I see the emergance of a new actor. Such an emerging actor would be similar to an m&a department within an investment bank. An actor dealing with sellers and buyers, possibly being a strategic partner to BigCo when divesting/acquiring patents. Cases are built around business, technical and legal strenghts. Key metrics are profitability, portfolio strength, ROI and regional / technological FTO. This actor will also, like the banks, rely heavily on trust and look for long term partners rather than short term assertion raid. Which is also the reason why such an actor in the long term could develop a scaleable model of naked patent sales - which I see as the true key of a functioning patent marketplace.
// Marcus Malek
(follow me on twitter)
In the ever debated and updated stimulus plan there is a fair chunk (or equivalent to 27 % of AIG quarterly loss) of 17 billion USD for Health-IT. Read a great summary of the Helth IT implications here and find more info from initiatives here and here. Health IT in a broad sense is using IT to provide better and cheaper healthcare. In this sense it is focused on electronic medical records (EMR), earmarking 17 million in payments for hospitals and practitioners who implement it and also 2 billion for infrastrucure, admin and standardization. Timeframe is also of the essence, standards shall be set by the end of this year and payments will start in 2011.
I intend this to be a series I come back to as I find it interesting for many reasons, here are a few:
1) In my mind it is a great initiative - just imagine having all that data and using algorithms to compare MD's thoughts
2) Interesting to see how governement handles standard setting in just 9 months.
3) There is a provision that an open source initiative must be investigated.
4) Two very interesting and in many ways opposite players, Google and Microsoft, have already started working on this
5) It is a hot topic as it is very much intertwined with ethics, data protection and privacy
Before starting of, I wish to say that I am no expert in EMRs so comments are very welcome and I look forward to learning from them AND updating the series with good thoughts / ideas. I honestly think this is one of the most intertwined tech/legal/business/ethics/IP/standards issues of today.
Part 1 - The new standard wars?
The first thing that brought my attention was the fact that standardization plays such a crucial role in this and also that the government is the one pulling the strings. As this is no new field there is lot of IP already out there and also lot of unconnected systems. This leave to rather large questions regarding standards: "what" and "how". At time of writing I have yet not heard of a czar or some concrete measures being done, but I see endless possibilities for how this can be solved - let me share som toughts on scenarios.
How to set the standard:
* Patent pool with free access
Governmental control of IP through acquisition of key patents related to largest / fastest / best system and then labellig that as the standard and through monetary incentives make it the prevailing one. Could (should) grant free access to the patents and also has funds to do so. Likely subject to heavy lobbying activity prior to choice and thus could suffer critique and in worst case low market penetration.
* Standards Organization
There is nothing ruling out the formation of an "ordinary" standards agency like in many other fields. Relying on market powers, corproate negotiations and wealth redistribution to settle the issues. Risks are of course royalty stacking and an immediate 17 bililion dollar mark-up on total revenues generated until end of stimulus package
What to standardize:
* The whole nine yards
Just choosing one EMR option and then once again using monetary incentives to make in prevail. In theory (as always) this is easy, but in practice some MDs want one kind, some the other, some want voice control, some touch screen interfaces etc. etc. This could be full of criticism as the penalties for not adopting the systems are likely not as high as the pain and frustration for practitioners to us a system they dislike.
*Software
Scalable and quick model, but with less IP possibilities. I would draw the analogy to having all EMR's report in one certain file type so that all data would be imported in one large database (n.b. I'm no computer scientist). I'm also assuming that with software only, there are many privacy issues to consider.
* Interface
Safe but expensive, time consuming and full of interoperability problems. In my mind, given a longer time frame, it could be a safe way to develop a new interface only for EMRs, but in todays wireless world and it's encumberances that could be a monumental task.
Another interesting thought would be if whatever system is chosen then turns into a lawsuit (patent or copyright), which also needs some careful thought. Would the government be ready to tackle trolls or are they more keen on just developing an SOP and suddenly having the EMR market boom only to realize it is totally encumbered.
One final thought, with the blu-ray wars in mind, meaning that blu-ray community was so keen on winning just to make sure. their hardware would be in everyone's home with an ethernet port once we all start downloading movies. One could hope that whoever makes these decisions also thinks one step ahead and try to figure out what long term effects there are of digitising healthcare and having that data, not only focusing on choosing the short term solution best fitting the public opinion.
Marcus Malek
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